Where To Hire First (And Why)

When you’re choosing where next, you need a decision system, not a travel guide. This framework helps founders and CFOs compare countries on what actually moves outcomes in the first 0–20 hires: talent density, hiring lead time, compliance complexity, and runway impact. Use the matrix, run a 90-day test, then either double down or pivot with minimal sunk cost.

What the RAG matrix scores (and why it matters)

Talent density

Score the roles you will hire in the next 90 days: AE, SDR, CSM, Sales Engineer. Use LinkedIn to size local pools by role and seniority in target metros. Check live job postings to gauge competition and add English proficiency where customer language matters. Mark Green when there is depth with manageable competition, Amber when the pool is workable but tight or language limits apply, and Red when the pool is thin or time to fill will drag.

Hiring lead time

Start dates are driven more by local notice and probation norms than by provider setup. In Germany probation can run up to six months with two weeks’ notice during probation. Outside probation, statutory notice increases with tenure. In France probation typically spans two to four months depending on level and can be renewed within legal limits. Plan your pipeline around these realities.

Compliance complexity

Watch early triggers for employee representation. In Germany a works council can be formed from five employees if staff initiate it. In France the CSE becomes mandatory at 11 employees over 12 months. In the Netherlands a works council is mandatory at 50 employees. These thresholds affect how quickly you can reorganise teams as you grow.

Runway impact

Compare total employer on-costs, not just salary. As a yardstick: the UK plans employer NI at 15% from April 2025. Ireland’s PRSI tops at about 11.25% from October 2025. Germany’s employer share across social insurances sits in the low-20s percent range when you add health, pension, unemployment and long-term care. Spain is about 30.6% plus an accident rate. The Netherlands includes employer-borne healthcare and insurances that vary by scheme and caps. These figures change the true, all-in cost of your first ten hires.

How to use the matrix

1. List the roles you will hire in the next 90 days. Score countries only for those roles at the seniorities you need now.
   
2. Score each country Red, Amber or Green on Talent, Lead time, Compliance and Runway. Force trade-offs. Green talent with Amber cost is often fine. Two Reds usually means test smaller or later.
   
3. Attach sources to each score.
   
   • Talent: LinkedIn counts by role and seniority in target metros, live postings, and EF English Proficiency where relevant.
     
   • Lead time: official labour portals and statutory guidance.
     
   • Runway: government guidance and Big-4 country summaries on employer on-costs.
     Keep short notes so the board can audit assumptions.
     
4. Decide the test design before you pick a market. If you need enterprise proof points, prefer countries where representation rules will not slow customer pilots in month one.
   
5. Set a go or no-go date. Cap the test at 90 days with clear milestones.

A factual example set (extend for your shortlist)

Germany

• Talent: strong AE/SDR/CSM/SE pools in Berlin/Munich; English workable in tech. Validate with LinkedIn role counts and active postings.
  
• Lead time: Probation can be agreed up to 6 months; during probation, the statutory notice period is two weeks. Baker Tilly
  
• Compliance: Employee-initiated works council possible from 5 eligible employees (BetrVG §1). Dejure
  
• Runway: Employer social contributions total roughly low-20s percent when you add employer shares across health (7.3% plus half the fund’s additional rate), pension (9.3%), unemployment (1.3%), and long-term care (~1.8%). PwC Tax Summaries+2Die Techniker+2

France

• Talent: solid AE/SDR/CSM/SE volume in Paris/Lyon; confirm English needs per role via postings.
  
• Lead time: Typical probation for permanent hires is 2 months (workers/employees), 3 months (technicians/supervisors), 4 months (managers), each renewable once if conditions are met. Légifrance+1
  
• Compliance: CSE becomes mandatory at 11 employees when that headcount is reached for 12 consecutive months. Service Public
  
• Runway: Employer social charges commonly around the mid-40s percent of gross at typical salaries, subject to ceilings and reductions (country summary). Smarti

Netherlands

• Talent: English-friendly GTM talent in Amsterdam/Rotterdam/Utrecht; verify via LinkedIn role counts and EF EPI.
  
• Lead time: Trial period capped by contract type. Max 1 month for fixed-term >6 months and <2 years; max 2 months for permanent or >2-year fixed term. business.gov.nl
  
• Compliance: works council mandatory from 50 employees.
  business.gov.nl
  
• Runway: Employer bears social costs including the Health Insurance Act (Zvw) employer contribution and other insurances; rates and caps set annually. Use PwC Netherlands summary as a consistent reference point in your model. Boundless

Spain

• Talent: growing AE/SDR/CS hubs in Barcelona/Madrid; confirm pool size and Spanish fluency per role.
  
• Lead time: statutory probation (“período de prueba”) typically up to 6 months for qualified technicians and 2 months for other employees, subject to the collective agreement and contract. LinkedIn
  
• Compliance: Employee delegates from 11 to 49 employees; a works council is established from 50 employees. Administracion+1
  
• Runway: Employer social security contributions around 30.57% plus an occupational accident rate by activity (e.g., ~1.5% for office roles). Buse

Ireland

• Talent: strong enterprise sales and CS pools in Dublin/Cork; validate with LinkedIn counts and postings.
  
• Lead time: Since the 2022 Regulations, probation generally capped at 6 months, extendable to a maximum of 12 months only in exceptional cases in the employee’s interest; unfair dismissal protections normally apply after 12 months’ service. Ogier+1
  
• Compliance: No general works-council regime; the Information and Consultation regulations apply to undertakings with at least 50 employees. Schlun & Elseven
  
• Runway: Employer PRSI top rate scheduled at about 11.25% for higher earnings from 1 October 2025 (Budget 2025). Use the Department of Social Protection/gov.ie notice as your reference. Advant Beiten

PE note: Hiring through an EOR helps you avoid entity setup during a test, but it does not change permanent establishment rules. Keep contracting and pricing authority centralised while testing and align with OECD guidance on dependent agents and fixed place of business

The 90-day test plan

Weeks 0–2: Design and legal guardrails
Define three measurable wins such as qualified conversations, pilots started and first revenue. Centralise contracting so local staff do not habitually conclude contracts while you test. Brief managers on representation thresholds so communications stay accurate.

Weeks 2–6: Hire the first two or three roles via EOR
Use an EOR to avoid entity drag while you validate. If you are switching staff from another provider, preserve tenure and benefits and match compensation to avoid anxiety.
Internal links: EOR Services • Customer Experience

Weeks 6–12: Prove value, not vanity metrics
Report weekly on pipeline quality and time from pilot to decision. If pilots are enterprise-grade, be realistic about consultation timing as headcount rises.

Day 90: Decision memo
If demand concentration, margin and headcount justify it, set a 60 to 90-day path to graduate the country. Either scale via EOR, move to a PEO or open an entity with a clean handover plan.
Global Expansion Without Entities

FAQ

How do we measure talent density without guessing?
Count the roles you plan to hire in your target metros using LinkedIn or Talent Insights, then check live postings to gauge competition. Add English proficiency if the role needs it. Green means depth with manageable competition, Amber means workable but tight, Red means time to fill will drag.

What really determines the start date?
Local notice and probation norms, and your background checks. Provider setup is rarely the bottleneck. Set start dates around statutory rules and confirm them in writing at offer stage.

When do representation bodies become a factor?
Sooner than many teams expect. Some countries form representation at low headcounts while others have fixed thresholds. Know the trigger for each market and brief managers.

Does EOR remove Permanent Establishment risk?
No. EOR provides compliant employment but does not change tax-treaty tests. Keep pricing and contract signature at HQ during market tests. If headcount and revenue concentrate, plan your entity or PEO move.

How should we compare runway impact without getting lost in percentages?
Use an all-in employer view: cash compensation plus employer on-costs such as social contributions, insurance and mandatory benefits. Apply one trusted source per country consistently.

What if a country is Green on talent but Amber on cost?
Often fine for the first 0–20 hires. If you can hit revenue milestones quickly, the extra on-cost is a trade-off, not a blocker. Two Reds usually means test smaller or later.

How often should we refresh the RAG?
Quarterly. Update role counts, posting snapshots and on-cost assumptions. Note what changed and why.

What evidence should we keep for the board?
Screenshots or exports of LinkedIn role counts, links to the statutory pages you relied on for notice, probation and representation thresholds, and the source for employer on-costs. One page per country, dated.

Book a 30-min “Where to hire first” review